Official 2010-2011 NFL Week 1 Thread

[ThaJim2]

eh, still batting about 50% which sets your franchise back half a decade. and remember eli was a bonafide bitch before plaxico got him the money

ryan? matty ice? i dunno, he aint chris chandler or bobby herbert

Beats the less than 5 percent chance that a QB does shit that is the 3rd round and later. The fault for a botched pick setting back a franchise for a half decade is again the teams fault this time for not understanding sunk costs and continuing on with their mistake instead of doing something to correct it. The 49ers are a great example of this where they still believe that Alex Smith is anything but a blackhole of suck. For all the shit that the Raiders and Al Davis get at least he understood this and got rid of Russel instead of continuing on with that mistake.

[capable_keL]

i hear ya, i just feel safer getting a veteren guy who can step in and actually play the position so you donbt waste talent like the jets when all your QB can do is throw a check down.

you take that top 3 pick and grab a mario williams, or jake long type and build your self backup in the trenches then go grab a kerry collins to get you to .500 then go sign a brees, cutler or established type

a decent chunk of starters or backups are not first round guys so i doubt that its 5% unless you media guide on the desk

[eternalreflection]

kel,

someone like Brees hits the market once every decade, and was far from a sure thing coming off shoulder injury, so then its gamble that McNabb has a few years left, or trade away 2 1sts to get someone like Cutler

the Packers have a much much stronger longterm than the Vikings entirely because they have an elite QB(honestly its probably 10/1 against MN having a better record over the next 5yrs)

when you are right you set your team up for a decade, if you are wrong and not an idiot you don't waste half a decade

[capable_keL]

kel,

someone like Brees hits the market once every decade, and was far from a sure thing coming off shoulder injury, so then its gamble that McNabb has a few years left, or trade away 2 1sts to get someone like Cutler

the Packers have a much much stronger longterm than the Vikings entirely because they have an elite QB(honestly its probably 10/1 against MN having a better record over the next 5yrs)

when you are right you set your team up for a decade, if you are wrong and not an idiot you don't waste half a decade

i am not talking in absolutes e flect. teams werent jumpin up to get brees. but you can get a playoff caliber QB on the market which i prefer assuming you have a very high first round pick.

besides warner, brady, favre, romo was undrafted, cassell was a late round guy


the whole point i bring this up is cuz i know who you wanted the vikings to pick, and i am so happy we didnt draft him because cook will be a much bigger impact this year

and i know the pack is better than us. its obvious

i am about to grab a mathews sig my damn self

[Gregg Popabitch]

favre was a 2nd rounder.

what do you guys mean by selecting player with a top pick? Do you mean a top 10 draft pick, a first rounder, or anywhere in the first two rounds?

[jamrage]

I'm with Kel on not wanting to spend a high first (top ten) on a qb with very few exceptions. I'd much rather have a qb that has shown he knows how to play in the league rather than a young guy who is given money and attention he's never had before.

Matt Schaub was a third rounder.

[ThaJim2]

favre was a 2nd rounder.

what do you guys mean by selecting player with a top pick? Do you mean a top 10 draft pick, a first rounder, or anywhere in the first two rounds?

I can't speak for anyone else but when I am referring to as a top pick is generally the top 3 picks to top 8 picks where the salary you are paying means the organization can only pick players that play a limited number of positions. Top 3 you can only take QB's, Pass rushing DL, and LTs at 2 or 3 maybe you can throw in a freak CB or WR. At 4 to 8 you can add in a pass rushing LB maybe a freak S and some teams would add RB which I think is still a huge mistake at this point.

[eternalreflection]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

so the upperbound without spending 2 1sts is the 15th best QB or so, and well you don't really win titles with those guys

so your options are pray you find the next Brady, use a high 1st, get lucky that a high 1st guy slips to late 1st and get him, or build a near-goat defense

[eternalreflection]

dp

[ThaJim2]

kel,

someone like Brees hits the market once every decade, and was far from a sure thing coming off shoulder injury, so then its gamble that McNabb has a few years left, or trade away 2 1sts to get someone like Cutler

the Packers have a much much stronger longterm than the Vikings entirely because they have an elite QB(honestly its probably 10/1 against MN having a better record over the next 5yrs)

when you are right you set your team up for a decade, if you are wrong and not an idiot you don't waste half a decade

i am not talking in absolutes e flect. teams werent jumpin up to get brees. but you can get a playoff caliber QB on the market which i prefer assuming you have a very high first round pick.

besides warner, brady, favre, romo was undrafted, cassell was a late round guy[/quote]

I can't even get the number of Undrafted FA QB's but for every Warner and Romo there are hundreds of Drew Willys and Billy Farris that are lucky to even make it out of Rookie camp. I don't know why you have Favre on here as he was a high 2nd round pick I believe the 31st or 32nd pick.



[/quote]

The title of graph tells you all you need to know why this chart is worthless, survival bias. To use the 6th round which actually has more quality than the round would suggest it is still the top 7 guys that are responsible for about 70 percent of all the snaps taken by QBs selected in that round. Since 1978* there have been 59 players selected in this round 33 of them took less than 100 snaps in the NFL and only 7 started for a team in more than 2 seasons.

Compare that to the first round where there has been 68 QBs drafted All but 2 had at least 100 snaps. The top 7 guys in the first round account for only about 10 percent of the snaps taken. The chart is basically taking Tom Brady and Matt Hasselback and a couple of other average to slightly above average guys and comparing them to not just Marino and Manning but also Russel and Alex Smith.


*I picked this year because this is the year of the rule changes as well as this is about the time when southern schools where sending their first real integrated classes to the NFL.

[Gregg Popabitch]

Drew Brees was taken with the first pick of the 2nd round.

I generally think a top pick is a top 10 pick. I don't care who i pick in this range as long as I project them to be elite game changers. I can't hate on someone taking a special RB in the top 3.....especially if it's marshall faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson. I can understand placing extra value on a QB, Offensive Tackle, or elite pass rusher when it comes to top 3 selections. Only players I wouldn't take in the top 10 usually are interior offensive linemen and fullbacks. You can make a case for every other position.

[ThaJim2]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

so the upperbound without spending 2 1sts is the 15th best QB or so, and well you don't really win titles with those guys

so your options are pray you find the next Brady, use a high 1st, get lucky that a high 1st guy slips to late 1st and get him, or build a near-goat defense

Bingo.

Well you can get a 34 year old QB that has not completed a season without injury in like 5 seasons that is around the 10th best QB now for a 2nd rounder. But you are not going to get a proven top 10 guy that is under the age of 30 without spending at least a high 1st rounder and probably multiple first rounders.

The chances of landing a guy that can play tier 1 QB based on historic data.

1st round- About a 1 in 5 chance of getting an elite level player and about a 50-50 of getting a solid starter.

2nd round- About a 1 in 8 chance of getting an elite level player and about a 20 percent of getting a solid starter.

3rd round- About an 8 percent chance of getting an elite level player and a little less than 20 percent of a solid starter.

4th round- A 2 percent chance of elite level and 13 of a solid starter.

5th round- A 3 percent chance of elite level and a starter.

6th round- A 5 percent chance of elite level a 12 percent of a solid starter.

7th or later no FA- A 2 percent chance of elite level about an 8 percent of a solid starter.

Undrafted FA- This is a very rough estimate but about 1 in 250 become elite and I am not about to make a guess on solid starters but I would go under 3 percent.

The later the round the more generous I was with my definitions.

[Gregg Popabitch]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

Drew Brees

[capable_keL]

i mean if you have a top 5-10 pick dont ever take a QB from a warm climate who is black, white or brown

wait till a rodgers or schuab fall in your lap, let them reggies stay on the board and get an interior stud

[ThaJim2]

Drew Brees was taken with the first pick of the 2nd round.

I generally think a top pick is a top 10 pick. I don't care who i pick in this range as long as I project them to be elite game changers. I can't hate on someone taking a special RB in the top 3.....especially if it's marshall faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson. I can understand placing extra value on a QB, Offensive Tackle, or elite pass rusher when it comes to top 3 selections. Only players I wouldn't take in the top 10 usually are interior offensive linemen and fullbacks. You can make a case for every other position.

Top 10 works I use top 8 because there is actually a fairly decent drop in contract demands historically between 8 and 9. On RB's If you know you are getting Faulk or LT it is worth it the problem is you might end up with Frank Gore a very good top 10 level RB that is not worth the contract that even a pick a 7 or 8 gets, to be worth the money a top 3 pick gets a RB has to have several seasons of 1700 plus Yards from Scrimmage and in the top 8 a couple seasons at that level. The other reason not to take a RB that high is fear of building around him instead of the passing game. Then of course the injury factor for the position.

The argument against the other positions that I said I would pass on is you can find players that are close enough but much cheaper in 2 to 4th round. I personally would never take a TE in the first round biggest bust factor and least upside of any position based on historic data while you can find good to great TE cheap in the 4th and later. Basically any TE drafted in the top 15 will be the highest paid TE in history and only Tony Gonzalez has every been worth the contract of a first rounder.

[ThaJim2]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

Drew Brees

Its not exactly honest to say he was a top 10 QB when he was on the market when he just underwent a surgery where even the surgeon said he has a less than 10 percent chance of playing in the NFL again.

[HomeSkillet]

I miss being not busy and following sports like that :( Thank you guys for giving me an argument to follow. I fucking love the NFL

[Gregg Popabitch]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

Drew Brees

Its not exactly honest to say he was a top 10 QB when he was on the market when he just underwent a surgery where even the surgeon said he has a less than 10 percent chance of playing in the NFL again.

I'm from the school that a champ is the champ until someone takes the belt from him.

In this situation, a QB is a top 10 QB until he proves he's not a top 10 QB.

The innocent till proven guilty theory, i guess.

[elohim]

I don't wanna distract from the current discussion, but..

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/ne ... id=5571905

I think shit's funny how he'll give Revis his due now....

"All week, he's talking about he's a shutdown corner. There's really no shutdown corners in the league because they have help for most of the game. I mean, I probably could play corner if I had (safety Brandon) Meriweather over the top for the whole game. I think I could be a shutdown corner." -- Randy Moss after being held to 4 catches for 24 yards against Revis last year

[Tweak Da Leak]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

Drew Brees

Its not exactly honest to say he was a top 10 QB when he was on the market when he just underwent a surgery where even the surgeon said he has a less than 10 percent chance of playing in the NFL again.

I'm from the school that a champ is the champ until someone takes the belt from him.

In this situation, a QB is a top 10 QB until he proves he's not a top 10 QB.

The innocent till proven guilty theory, i guess.

Do you still have Carson Palmer in your top 10?

[Nl5H]

it's very difficult to gauge a college qb's success in the nfl because the offenses are so complicated and varied that not a lot of qb's go through a "pro style" offense (whatever that is because nfl offenses are also changing in comlexity). plus, most good qbs have lots of help in terms of bad ass skill players and/or defense to help them out, which people may overlook. not to mention the game is significantly faster in the nfl, which you all know.

[Gregg Popabitch]

but the guys that are top10 never go on the market

Drew Brees

Its not exactly honest to say he was a top 10 QB when he was on the market when he just underwent a surgery where even the surgeon said he has a less than 10 percent chance of playing in the NFL again.

I'm from the school that a champ is the champ until someone takes the belt from him.

In this situation, a QB is a top 10 QB until he proves he's not a top 10 QB.

The innocent till proven guilty theory, i guess.

Do you still have Carson Palmer in your top 10?

off the top of my head, he is probably fringe. Somewhere between 9-12 probably.