Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

[Employee]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/s ... ilm-567604

Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250-million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.

[Mindbender Futurama]

killing the major studio/Hollywood monopoly over the vastly artform of film can only be a good thing

the music and print paper industries can't be the only ones that die from the internet

[ardamus]

Well, it was only a matter of time........

[ThaJim2]

killing the major studio/Hollywood monopoly over the vastly artform of film can only be a good thing

the music and print paper industries can't be the only ones that die from the internet

Well to Spielbergs point of a couple of 250 million dollar movies bombing and taking down a studio. Netflix when it was still disk took away the safety net that was DVD sales that would save almost all bombs at the end of the day. Disk sales are about 30 percent for block buster compared to what they where in 2005 and for non blockbusters even less.

[Monotonous]

I aint paying 25 to see SHIT


Bootleg all day if thats the case

[PopeyeJones]

LOL Spielberg. Not gonna happen. Semi-obscured price discrimination already occurs for all mass produced media objects in tens upon tens of little and non-obviously intrusive ways. Consumers reject obvious and blatant price discrimination for experience goods that benefit from economies of scale (e.g. everything except for live evens). I'd be really fucking surprised if that happened. Given how revenue is distributed between studios and chains and what's happening with smaller windows, I'd guess the opposite thing happening might even be more likely.

[ThaJim2]

Another part where their argument falls down is the rise of data. The spreadsheet can tell for 80 percent of the films produced what the final gross is going to be within 10 million. For the movies Spielberg and Lucus now wants to make the more personal type stories this is horrible news because the spreadsheet is going to come back with the truth these movies don't make money anymore and are a lot more variable. When you are investing 100 plus million into a project like Lincoln and the spreadsheet either gives a low ball or at best a small profit its just smarter to invest that money into 4 or 5 lost footage Horror movies that always make money. HBO can afford to take that risk because they have built their model on being Prestige Content and don't need this movie to directly pay for itself. Again with Lincoln it had at least 6 production companies chipping in on that budget to lesson their risk exposure.

I guess its possible that a studio can be taken down if they green light three movies that each have a total cost budget of 250 to 400 million in a short time frame. But, that would have to be a studio that was willing to do 3 movies that stared Depp, Will Smith and Pitt. These are the only 3 stars that the spreadsheet likes to make money so they can fool the spread sheet into a green light on a movie that otherwise would not be funded. This can actually be seen this year to a degree. After Earth would not have got a green light without Smith. WW Z would not have got 200 million production without Pitt. And there is no chance in hell that Lone Ranger would exist without Depp. The Last two especially. Highest grossing Zombie movie made 75 million looking at 45 to 65 million for an upper range with little overseas money. Lone Ranger to break even would need to be the highest grossing TV adaption and Western. It would have to almost double what most people think of as TV adaptions for break even.

[JaH BLaZe]

Theres already cost differences in movies on cable. I think spielberg is trippin if he thinks people will pay more at the movies when 3d tvs are around the corner

[Combo7]

^^ http://news.investors.com/technology-cl ... n-move.htm

Disney's ESPN deals crushing blow to nascent 3D TV market

"Due to limited viewer adoption of 3D services to the home, ESPN is discontinuing ESPN 3D," ESPN spokeswoman Amanda DeCastro said in a statement. "Nobody knows more about sports in 3D than ESPN, and we will be ready to provide the service to fans if or when 3D does take off."

[ric]

if by 'implode' he means 'cant keep putting out subpar movies with crazy budget' then yes

[PopeyeJones]

The spreadsheet can tell for 80 percent of the films produced what the final gross is going to be within 10 million.

What's this in reference to? There's certainly a lot of folks trying to sell their services claiming stuff like this and studios even claim stuff like this to attract investors, but the validity of this type of forecasting is pretty questionable, IMO.

Google is now claiming they can forecast opening weekends with 94% accuracy one month out, which while cool of true, only really helps in terms of targeting last week media blitzes.

[ThaJim2]

The spreadsheet can tell for 80 percent of the films produced what the final gross is going to be within 10 million.

What's this in reference to? There's certainly a lot of folks trying to sell their services claiming stuff like this and studios even claim stuff like this to attract investors, but the validity of this type of forecasting is pretty questionable, IMO.

There are a few companies that offer this service and a couple have been around for almost 15 years now. These older ones which is what I was mostly referencing with that comment basically put everything into the spreadsheet from the stars they are targeting for leads and support, the crew they are looking to hire, to the plot, to how much "grey" is in the conflict of the story, locations, opening dates, opening theater count etc.

Of course since both sides are more secretive then even HFT houses about this issue you have a bit of taking their word for it. The movie 10,000 BC (allegedly but it was it) went though this and Sony passed because of what the Spreadsheet said and the Spreadsheet basically nailed everything about the film.

Marvel Films for example was able to land a huge credit line and the Paramount deal because of the spreadsheet. Legendary Pictures also uses the spreadsheet yet for some reason picked up 10,000 bc after it got rejected by a spreadsheet. This was probably the Roland Emmerich effect since every studio loves him because he always comes in at and most cases below budget and time.

Now there are shops that you can use during the screen writing process to help make it more marketable.

Like I said above you do have to take their claims with some skepticism since they wont release either the formula or even clients. That said from the studios that I know that use it, from seeing interviews from writers and other crew, the slowing down of star salaries and really from the lack of flops from anyone but Disney and Universal for movies in the 175 million plus cost range.

Just compare some bombs* Green Lantern and John Carter. You know the spreadsheet spit out that GL would be the more successful movie since its a comic book movie etc while JC was never going to make money since its based on a property no one knows with a setting on Mars which is Box Office death. And in the NA GL made 50 million more with a smaller budget to boot.



*Ignoring overseas gross because its much more difficult to account for the studios take and for the purposes of a 200 million dollar movie made in the US and targeted first for a US audience Domestic numbers matter to studio execs and share holder if nothing else at a perception level and really if the movie did not make 2 and half times budget overseas its not really saving the movie from failure.

Google is now claiming they can forecast opening weekends with 94% accuracy one month out, which while cool of true, only really helps in terms of targeting last week media blitzes.

Agree here.