2013 NFL Offseason Thread

[capable_keL]

Hawks sign Winfield. Any thoughts Kel? Seems to have some gas in the tank, no?

best run stopping defensive back in the league. cant really play man coverage anymore but he wont need too. as a nick corner or an 8th in the box he could make a good defense lethal

nice sign bro.....

that being said i hope he tears up his knee in preseason and harvin's leg does a ware

[Stoned Starks]

Yeah seems like he'll be playing nickel exclusively. And our run D last year seriously faded towards the end of the year so hopefully he can help. Good shit.

[capable_keL]

McShay 5.0

1 Chiefs = Joeckel
2 Jaguars = Jordan
3 Raiders = Ansah
4 Eagles = Lotulelei
5 Lions = Fisher
6 Browns = Geno Smith
7 Cardinals = Lane Johnson
8 Bills = Warmack
9 Jets = Milliner
10 Titans = Floyd
11 Chargers = Cooper
12 Dolphins = Rhodes
13 Buccaneers = Austin
14 Panthers = Richardson
15 Saints = Mingo
16 Rams = Patterson
17 Steelers = Jarvis Jones
18 Cowboys = Vaccaro
19 Giants = Fluker
20 Bears = Eifert
21 Bengals = Trufant
22 Rams (from WSH) = Lacy
23 Vikings = Ogletree
24 Colts = Hayden
25 Vikings (from SEA) = Sylvester Williams
26 Packers = Pugh
27 Texans = Watson
28 Broncos = Werner
29 Patriots = Datone Jones
30 Falcons = Jamar Taylor
31 49ers = Cyprien
32 Ravens = Te'o

[Reason]

pro bowl and all-pro this year...don't believe me just watch

[capable_keL]

i notice you opted for the shirtless picture.

[VideoKilledThe]

i notice you opted for the shirtless picture.

[DLG]

[alpha]

ESPN is so fucking gay. making a story about Pitt matching a 2.5m offer for Sanders. Is this a fucking joke? Making a story about matching two point fucking five million?? Five minutes and counting so far.

[DLG]

they need to keep the site busy during he offseason bro

[alpha]

not sure what that has to do with sportscenter?

[peanut butter]

FBI and IRS agents conducted a search warrant at Pilot Flying J Headquarters yesterday in Knoxville, Tennessee. They returned again today to execute another search warrant, according to the Knoxville News Sentinel. Pilot Flying J is the company of Jimmy Haslam, the new Browns owner, who serves as the CEO. It is the largest travel center (mega gas stations/restaurants/restrooms) operator in the country.

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/201 ... -two-days/

Browns caliber of fail is unparalleled.



PEACE

[Jayou Ayen]

RIP Pat Summerall.



39

[Reason]

rip summerall word.

I asked Watson what stats he values most in his quarterbacks, and he said the staff specifically measures pressure situations that include third- and fourth-down throws, passes in the final two minutes, passes versus blitzes, scrambling throws, fourth-quarter throws and passes when the team is trailing.

Drop those numbers in a blender, and here are Bridgewater's results: a 160.0 QB rating, 13 yards per completion and a 70.4 completion percentage.

if the jets draft bridgewater, i predict he'll be starting by week 4

[capable_keL]

RIP Pat Summerall.



39

spent most of my life hearing him call the games on TV or on madden. he was an alkaholik too, he was one of us bros

[Reason]

i guaranfuckingtee geno smith is a bust

[peanut butter]

if the jets draft bridgewater, i predict he'll be starting by week 4

Jets fans already lookin at 2015



PEACE

[alpha]

And I wouldn't dismiss Geno. Not sure why Rzn is so convinced

[Joe Pesci]

the Jets should just troll us fans and pick Matt Barkley 9th overall.

USC QBz 4 Lyfe

In all seriousness if his heart checks out and he falls to 9, I'm all in favor of drafting Star Lotulelei and throwing him out there with Wilkerson, Coples, and Ellis and having the best d-line in the AFC East for the next 10 years.

Want no part of Geno Smith. Would only consider drafting him at 9 if the Jets can somehow procure that 13th overall pick from Tampa.

[DLG]

RIP Pat :(

[capable_keL]

keep it real bros


i am due about 120.00 in money from the madden game scandal

who else getting paid?

[PopeyeJones]

In all seriousness if his heart checks out and he falls to 9, I'm all in favor of drafting Star Lotulelei and throwing him out there with Wilkerson, Coples, and Ellis and having the best d-line in the AFC East for the next 10 years.

Someone is gonna get a beast in Star.

I really wish someone would aggregate player draft rankings over time from the first rankings after the season, again from after the combine, and then again right before the draft to see which rankings are most predictive of NFL success.*

My sneaking suspicion (and bias, I guess) is that the pre-combine rankings are the most predictive of NFL success, as they're all based on what people do and don't do on the field.

After the combine you get the introduction of more noise from workout warriors and overstated fears (e.g. Tayvon Austin goes from being a 2nd or 3rd round pick to a high to mid first because of an unofficial 40 time that isn't that special once the official one comes out, collective fear about a beast like Star, etc.).

By the time you get to the pre-draft rankings there has also been time for collective belief to create further noise, and the draft process itself introduces irrational overbidding (e.g. at the end of the season after watching all these QBs play we knew they all sucked, but a week out from the draft it seems a fair number of them are going to go in the first 40 picks despite their play not supporting that).


Basically:

Hypothesis 1: Conditioned on player position, pre-draft rankings are best at predicting # of starts.

H2: Conditioned on player position, pre-draft rankings are best at predicting # of stats (e.g. catches, tackles, carries, etc.) in the first five years after the draft.

H3: Conditioned on player position, after the first five years pre-draft rankings under perform compared to post- college season rankings and combine rankings under perform compared to post-college season rankings for # of stats.

H4: Conditioned on player position, # of pro-bowls is better predicted by post-college season rankings than post-combine rankings and pre-draft rankings.

Basically, everything that's not based on on-the-field evaluation introduces noise into the evaluative system, and the whole off-season is better understood as a money generating promotional venture rather than a clarifying evaluative process.


*It's essentially impossible to avoid endogeneity as the rankings right before the draft may be reasonably best at picking where people are drafted, and merely by being drafted higher a player may get more starts, stats, etc. even if he's not talented. "Success" would probably best be measured by Pro-Bowls, meaning you'd have to go back into the past a bit to only capture players who have already retired.

nerd

[ric]

revis to buccs
schiano and co doing things pretty well. im a big fan of the 'shutdown corner' though. shit is disappearing

good question tho;
if you were head coach;
A) would you be run heavy or pass heavy?
B) who would you rather have qbing your squad? romo or schaub or vick

@popeye
was thinking the same thing myself a few days ago but i dont think the earliest mocks/reports are the best.
1) the medical thing at the combine is probably a big thing. remember chris polk at UW? pre combine people were afraid that he had too many carries and then post combine it comes out that he supposedly has some hip bullshit.
2) also, you really can see how raw some of these guys are in the combine footage (probably why they dont show much actual drill footage anymore).
3) it seems to me that the 'experts' (all of them) hold back their real material until just before the draft anyway to make the product more consumable and provide for 32 different lines of narrative
4) also because we dont really get to see much of the 2nd stringers etc during the season the depth chart shit is super important and ultimately will figure into who they draft right?

anyway i just stopped reading those things. fuck em. most of the time they dont even have real reasons for anything anyway and youll rarely touch something real

[PopeyeJones]

^^^^ Good point re: medical conditions (Star's medical, non-medical condition is probably an anomaly).

Maybe you just control for medical flags from the combine (essentially meaning the combine would "perform" better if it was just a medical examination).

Another assumption I'm making (probably wrong) is that what's happening between the combine and the pre-draft rankings is just collective belief and irrational overbidding. There's also of course pro-days and individual workouts, which could be useful.

Just looking pre and post combine and controlling for injury discoveries would probably do it. Throw the pre-draft in there for curiosity, and because people would demand it, of course.

[VideoKilledThe]

Sooooo Revis got ZERO guaranteed dollars??? That contract is fucking worthless.

[PopeyeJones]

Sooooo Revis got ZERO guaranteed dollars??? That contract is fucking worthless.

Yep. Basically like getting the franchise tag every year for the rest of your career.

Really surprised Revis agreed to this.

[Joe Pesci]

Sad to see Revis go, but the reality is the Jets aren't good enough to blow 16 mil a year on a cornerback. Hopefully they can turn that 9th or 13th pick into even more draft picks. Plus I think we have like 10 picks next year. A couple solid drafts can turn this team around fairly quickly. Plus going 2-14 and drafting Bridgewater or Clowney next year won't hurt either.

[Stoned Starks]

You have to factor in the draft capital the Bucs sent tho. No way they're letting him walk after this year, and probably not the next either. A 1st and 3rd is too much to shell out just to cut a guy a year or two into his contract, unless he's completely lost it (unlikely) or his body breaks down, and its not like knee injuries are killing careers anymore. Much more likely that when he reestablishes himself on an elite level and they try and restructure. Sure it says no guaranteed money but he's at least getting this year and next year's salary. And that's 32 million if things don't pan out.

[capable_keL]

new uniforms for fins, jags, vikings

[peanut butter]

Oh so the Jags still in the league, huh? That's good



PEACE

[capable_keL]

cecil shorts or GTFO